Olasılık simülatörü
Theoretical probability says a fair coin lands heads half the time, but any short run of tosses says something else. This simulator runs experiments in bulk so you can watch the experimental fraction close in on the theoretical value.
Bu simülasyon nasıl kullanılır
- Choose coins, dice or a spinner
- Set how many trials to run
- Compare the running experimental frequency with the theoretical value
Nelere dikkat etmeli
- Small samples scatter widely around the expected value
- The relative frequency converges as trials increase, even though the absolute difference in counts may grow
- Streaks appear regularly and do not mean the next result is 'due'
Arkasındaki fizik
The law of large numbers says the relative frequency of an outcome approaches its true probability as the number of trials grows. Short runs deviate substantially — long streaks are entirely normal — while long runs converge. Crucially, past results never influence future ones, which is why the gambler's fallacy is a fallacy.